b. ㉠ Phenomena Implied by the 3rd Law

b. Explanation of the Meaning of the 3rd Law

 

Now let's take a closer look at the specific details implied by the 3rd law.

 

㉠ Phenomena Implied by the 3rd Law

 

First, as a general rule, the larger the social changes in areas such as technology, knowledge, and culture, the greater the regime change force becomes^[Ch.3.308]. This is because large-scale social changes alter the structure of understanding and relationships among members of society, which can lead to greater losses under existing rule systems.

 

Changes brought about by new technologies are also important. For example, the transition of infantry's military superiority to cavalry in the 12th and 13th centuries, which determined the tactics of the time, maintained the privileges of the aristocratic class in the feudal era. The invention of the crossbow between the 11th and 13th centuries also began to reduce the gap in social status between knights and peasant soldiers. Later, the invention of firearms became the most important cause of macro-level political change, such as the collapse of the Mongol Empire. These are all examples of military technology.

 

Meanwhile, as the 21st century approaches, the combination of computer and internet revolution with container ships and transport planes, fiber optic cables, and satellite communication systems has destroyed the outdated system of mass production and dramatically increased competition. As a result of these changes, investors have put their savings into large mutual and pension funds and have pressured companies to achieve higher profits. CEOs who have met these demands have received generous rewards, while those who have not have been laid off. This is an example of how new technologies have changed the structure of economic relationships.

 

In addition, as the duration of the rule system increases, the regime change force tends to become stronger^[Ch.3.308]. If a political regime persists for a long time without change, societal changes and shifts in profit equilibrium conditions accumulate accordingly. As a result, the political regime becomes detached from societal realities and losses accumulate, leading to an increase in regime change force.

 

Second, as the regime change force increases, the repression force can both function and strengthen. When the Black Death caused economic upheaval in the 14th century, the English nobles and parliament tried to suppress it through rules and laws, and those who violate rules and regulations are subject to sanctions. If more people violate rules, the sanctions become stronger. This is a fundamental property of all rules and laws. However, as rule violations and sanctions increase, this leads to an increase in political costs^[Ch.3.309].

 

If the repression force of a regime becomes strong enough, regime change can be suppressed. Conversely, if the repression force is not sufficiently expanded, regime change will follow. Therefore, it can be said that if a social change occurs due to some cause and the profit equilibrium condition departs from the rule system, either ⓐthe repression force of the rule system should increase or ⓑthe given rule system should change.

 

Third, if a significant amount of political cost is expended, the repression force weakens in the short term. Thus, if the regime change force becomes stronger, political change will occur^[Ch.3.310]. The condition for weakening the repression force lies in quickly exhausting the political cost of the regime when the rule system does not change and the repression force of the rule system increases. On April 27-28, 1789, serious riots occurred in France, and the military was deployed, resulting in about 50 deaths before being quelled. However, the repression force of the regime consumed political cost, as "soldiers were constantly deployed to conflict zones throughout the spring and were exhausted, and support from the monarchy was weak, resulting in a decline in their morale." This is a case where the repression force of the regime, centered on armed capacity, weakened. Consequently, the repression force of the rule system weakened, leading to a change in the rule system.

 

Fourth, without the repression force, the rule system tends to change frequently, even when the system's flexibility is low^[Ch.3.311]. The absence of the repression force means that no one will be penalized for breaking the rules, so who would comply with the rules? Furthermore, in such cases, most rules will soon disappear, resulting in the emergence of new rules. The rule system undergoes change.

 

Fifth, if the profit equilibrium condition moves into the rule system before regime change, regime change does not occur^[Ch.3.312]. Such an event may occur in the short term regardless of social change when the regime change force is triggered.

 

Sixth, if regime change occurs frequently, the associated political costs increase significantly. This political cost may be greater than the cost incurred to suppress political change requiring regime repression force[Ch.3.313]. This can be seen most clearly in countries that constantly experience coups or have unstable situations, as they tend to be impoverished.