c. ㉠ Coercive Regime Overthrow

㉠ Coercive Regime Overthrow

The mathematical model describing political change characterized by "regime overthrow by armed force capacity" is depicted in the following graph.

[Diag.3.C.6] Mathematical Model of Coercive Regime Overthrow

Looking at this graph, the repression force( \( \vec{S_{TB}} \)  ) continues to increase until time  \( t_2 \) . This implies that the political regime has enough political capacity to bear the maintenance costs. Nevertheless, despite this fact, the rise of regime change force (  \( \vec{H} \)  ) keeps on going, exceeding the overall regime change cost at point  \( t_1 \)  .

 

Such political changes are possible when the forces that seek to change the regime have greater power than those who seek to maintain it, and especially in the short term, it is important that those who seek political change have strong armed capacity. Once political change occurs at  \( t_1 \) , there is often a period between \( t_1 \)  and \( t_2 \)   where the repression force(  \( \vec{S_{TB}} \)  ) disappears. However, there are also cases where the forces that support the previous regime continue to operate after the regime change. The French Revolution is a representative example of regime change through armed capacity, and the dismantling of the Marcos regime in the Philippines in 1986 is another such case.