c. ㉡ Political Regime Collapse

㉡ Political Regime Collapse

A mathematical model describing political change characterized by the "political regime collapse" is shown in the following graph.

 

[Diag.3.C.7] Mathematical model of political regime collapse

 

This graph describes the sudden disappearance of the constraint force  \( \vec{S_{TB}} \)  at time  \( t_1 \) . This means that the regime maintenance capacity under the existing regime  has been exhausted. Then, the only factor that impedes political change is the cost of regime change  \( \vec{C_{CH}} \) . However, since the regime change force  \( \vec{{H^{R \rightarrow R*}}} \)  has already surpassed the regime change cost  \( \vec{{C^{R \rightarrow R*}}} \)  at  \( t_1 \)  , political change occurs.

This kind of event usually occurs when the regime maintenance cost( \( \vec{C} \) ) is exhausted due to an increase in repression force. In particular, when regime change force increases, society becomes chaotic and resistance from members becomes severe, making it difficult to collect political costs( \( \vec{C_{m}} \) ) such as taxes from each member(m), resulting in an easy depletion of repression force. The repression force  \( \vec{S_{TB}} \)  is a vector, and its third component is ideological capacity, so the legitimacy of the existing regime  \( \vec{C_{CH}} \)  may decrease or the preference for a new regime R* may increase, which is also a cause of the decrease in repression force  \( \vec{S_{TB}} \) .